In an Oct. 10 weekly report, Glassnode points out that bitcoin has remained remarkably stable in recent weeks compared to traditional asset markets such as forex, volatile equity and credit.
Separately, it is emphasized that bitcoin has shown unusually low volatility amid central bank rate hikes, frenetic inflation and a strong U.S. dollar.
The paper also compared current market conditions to previous bear market lows to conclude that “onchain performance, market structure and investor behavior patterns dot the i’s and cross the t’s for a textbook bear market.”
In the last report, we assessed whether a bottom may be forming and adjusted several metrics to account for the impact of lost coins.
The report compared two charts, one in a bear market from September 2018 to April 2019 and the current one that started in April 2022. They showed a high degree of similarity.
In addition, a surge in bitcoin withdrawals from exchanges has also been reported, which is also a signal of accumulation as the asset is not being prepared for sale. Net cryptocurrency withdrawals from exchanges reached 15.7 thousand BTC, the highest since June 2022.
Glassnode used the Accumulation Trend Score metric to determine the cumulative intensity of active investor balance changes over the past 30 days. It “indicates significant accumulation by large companies,” and that the current state suggests an equilibrium or neutral market structure similar to that of early 2019.
According to WooCharts, bitcoin is still trading below key long-term price pattern indicators, including the 200-week moving average at $23,561 and the realized price at $21,204.